⬆️ GDP nowcast: Q4, 2024: +2.2%

Holding steady at trend growth

Q4 economic activity seems to be on pretty good trajectory, and the nowcast is essentially unchanged from the previous post. Rising interest rates (despite the Fed’s cutting is definitely weird), but the general macro numbers — i.e. job growth, consumption, income, etc. — are generally solid. Of the 210 data-points collected so far this quarter, 126 have been “good” for a net positive score of +10%. The GDP nowcasting model is now showing +2.2% growth for Q4.

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index rebounded in January and is now looking very strong, but policy uncertainty is (and will likely remain elevated) for a while.

How are other nowcasts/forecasts looking for Q4, 2024?

• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: +2.6%

• Atlanta Fed GDP Now: +3.0%

• Good Judgement Forecast: between +1.5% and +3.0%

• Goldman Sachs: +2.4%