⬆️ GDP nowcast: Q3, 2024: +3.0%
Just kidding, the economy suddenly looks pretty good!
Just as markets have rebounded from the late-July/early-August crash, it seems like economic conditions are also recovering. The last nowcast showed economic conditions deteriorating throughout July, but the nowcast has now reversed course. Of the 128 data-points collected so far this quarter, 88 have been “good” for a net positive score of +18%. The GDP nowcasting model is now showing +3.0% growth for Q3.
I’m a little skeptical growth will be that good in Q3, but Q2 growth was recently revised upwards from a healthy +2.8% to that magical +3.0% level. +3.0% growth two quarters in a row would be fantastic. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is still absolutely awful, but it has recovered a lot from last month, as well.
How are other nowcasts/forecasts looking for Q3, 2024?
New York Fed Staff Nowcast: +2.5%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: +2.5%
Good Judgement Forecast: between +1.5% and +3.0%
Bank of America & Goldman Sachs via Calculated Risk: +2.6% & +2.4%