⬆️ GDP nowcast: Q3, 2024: +1.7% (but falling fast)
Economic data is suddenly showing a lot of weakness
After a strong Q2 GDP report, it’s looking like Q3 is on-track for a weaker number, but the bigger question is the trend in the nowcast (🔻). Recent market volatility also seems to imply weakening economic conditions. Of the 92 data-points collected so far this quarter, 51 have been “good” for a net positive score of +5.1%.1 However, since the last week in July, only 12 out of 28 economic data-points have been “good” (net negative score of -7.1%). The GDP nowcasting model is now showing +1.7% growth for Q3.
At this point, I think people would be thrilled with +1.7% growth this quarter. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is absolutely awful.
How are other nowcasts/forecasts looking for Q3, 2024?
New York Fed Staff Nowcast: +2.1%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: +2.9% (seems very optimistic, but they nailed it last time!)
Good Judgement Forecast: between +0.0% and +1.5% (highest odds)
Goldman Sachs via Calculated Risk: +2.6%
5.1% = (51 ‘good’ indicators ÷ 92 total indicators) - 50%