Solar power capacity keeps eclipsing forecasts ☀️😎
The Energy Information Administration's solar capacity forecasts go from → ↗ ↑ (but we still need to build more)
Solar electrical generation capacity is growing exponentially: the Energy Information Administration’s 2016 forecast predicted solar capacity would be about 51 gigawatts (GW) in 2024, and it’s currently on-pace for 131 GW. I’ve written previously about how EIA forecasts — particularly around emerging technologies — are often far too stingy, and this is another good example (they even paused their annual forecasts for a year to update their models).
Not fast enough
Solar should be pretty unstoppable at this point for obvious reasons. However, many of the states with the most sunshine are also the most tepid on solar development. There are also well-funded networks of anti-renewable activists who fight solar and wind development. Rebecca Burns details the weirdo conspiracy theories and shady tactics used in these networks in her investigation “Against the Wind”.
Robert Bryce is probably the most famous anti-renewable energy spokesperson. When he's not busy claiming wind mills cause cancer, he publishes a database of rejected renewable projects which is kind of useful! While he sees these rejected projects as good, most people roll their eyes at useful projects getting sacked for dumb reasons. Still, the database might prove useful to those of us who think pollution free energy is a good.
Keep in mind, there are parts of the country where factory farms legally spray pig shit out of a firehose at their neighbors, but a solar farm is too invasive? Ultimately, I think it's a losing strategy try to bully farmers and land owners out of building something on their property.
Learn from Texas
Paradoxically, the most pro-solar states are often the worst at building stuff. Texas solar capacity has stormed ahead of all other states and nearly caught up with California’s capacity. This is despite the fact that California has a decade+ start on solar enthusiasm. I’d be willing to bet that Texas will have more solar than California sooner than most forecasts predict.
In the latest Queued Up report, the researchers at Berkeley Labs note that “The share of projects requesting interconnection from 2000-2018 that have reached [completion] is relatively low across regions”. Again, Texas is the standout, here. Just 8% of capacity-weighted projects proposed from 2000-2018 in the California Independent System Operator were completed. Meanwhile, Texas’ subregion completed 24% — the most of any subregion.