⬆️ GDP Nowcast: Q4, 2025: +3.0%
Rough start to the quarter, but it seems back on track with latest data
Now that government data is flowing again, the GDP model seems to be in better shape. Q3 GDP data came in at +4.3%, and Q4 is shaping up to be pretty solid as well. The government shutdown had the model spooked for a while, but the outlook has risen steadily since it ended. Job growth and disposable incomer are clearly flatlining, but overall GDP numbers just keep outpacing expectations (because we never stop spending money 🫠). Of the 196 data points collected this quarter, 121 have been ‘good’ for a net positive score of +23%. The model is expecting Q4 GDP growth will be about +3.0%.
How are other nowcasts/forecasts looking for Q4, 2025?
New York Fed Staff Nowcast: ↑+2.7%
Atlanta Fed GDP Now: ↑+5.1%
St. Louis Fed Nowcast: ↑+1.1%
Congressional Budget Office: ↑+1.2%
Daniel Bachman’s The Nowcast: ↑+6.3%
Median: ↑+2.4%