⬆️ GDP Nowcast: Q3, 2025: +4.2%
The economy seems... ok?
Q2 GDP numbers came in somewhat weird (high top-line GDP growth partially due to odd accounting), but the model thinks Q3 is looking more solid. I’m a little skeptical — retail sales have solidified, but markets have softened in the last few days and job creation has slowed to a pretty weak pace. I’m guessing the forecast will overshoot growth this quarter. Of the 78 data points collected this quarter, 53 have been 'good' for a net positive score of +36%. The GDP nowcasting model is showing +4.2% growth for Q3.
How are other nowcasts/forecasts looking for Q3, 2025?
New York Fed Staff Nowcast: ↑+2.0%
Atlanta Fed GDP Now: ↑+2.3%
St. Louis Fed Nowcast: ↓-0.3%
Goldman Sachs (via Calculated Risk): ↑+1.4%
Daniel Bachman’s The Nowcast Substack: ↑+4.9%