⬆️ GDP Nowcast: Q3, 2025: +3.2%

The economy still seems... ok?

The Federal Reserve voted to cut interest rates today for the first time since December, so it seems like a good time to fire up the GDP nowcast model. The model was pretty optimistic about Q3 growth earlier in the quarter, and it still thinks growth will be strong in Q3; however, the forecast has weakened lately. Of the 164 data points collected this quarter, 102 have been improving for a net positive score of +24%. The model is expecting Q3 GDP growth will be about +3.2%.

How are other nowcasts/forecasts looking for Q3, 2025?

• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: ↑+2.1%

• Atlanta Fed GDP Now: ↑+3.3%

• St. Louis Fed Nowcast: ↑+0.2%

• Goldman Sachs (via Calculated Risk): ↑+1.6%

• Daniel Bachman’s The Nowcast Substack: ↑+0.6%