⬆️ GDP nowcast: Q3, 2024: +3.9%

3.9% growth seems unlikely, but US economic data is just really strong right now...

I wrote in early September that economic conditions had rebounded from a weak start to the quarter and appeared to be very strong. New data released for September appears to strengthen that case. For example, US job creation was +245k in September — much higher than expectations. Of the 233 data-points collected so far this quarter, 157 have been “good” for a net positive score of +17%. The GDP nowcasting model is now showing +3.9% growth for Q3.

I’m definitely skeptical growth will be that good in Q3, but there have been more positive revisions to previous reports (e.g. July + August job growth was revised upwards by +72k jobs). The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has turned positive for the first time in a while, as well.

How are other nowcasts/forecasts looking for Q3, 2024?

• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: +3.0%

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow: +2.5%

• Good Judgement Forecast: between +1.5% and +3.0%

• Goldman Sachs: +3.0%