⬆️ GDP nowcast: Q2, 2024: +2.1%
Q1 was disappointing and Q2 started off slow, but it looks like economic growth is picking up in the second half of Q2
After a surprisingly weak Q1 GDP report1, it’s looking like Q2 is on-track for a slightly better number. The economic data my model uses has gone from being fairly weak earlier in the quarter to very positive in the last few weeks. Of the 215 data-points collected so far this quarter, 123 have been “good” for a net positive score of +7.2%.2 The GDP nowcasting model is now showing +2.1% growth for Q2.
+2% growth would be a nice recovery from the weak 1st quarter; however, some indicators are looking much more pessimistic (i.e. Citigroup Economic Surprise Index), so I would expect more downside risk than upside.
How are other nowcasts tracking?
New York Fed Staff Nowcast for Q2, 2024: +1.9%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q2, 2024: +3.0% (wow!)
Calculated Risk also notes that Goldman Sachs is forecasting +1.9% and Bank of America is at +1.8%.
My model is consistently in the range of other nowcasts/forecasts, but all of the forecasts have been pretty far off lately!
This caught most forecasters by surprise — The New York Fed, the Atlanta Fed, and my nowcast model were all expecting mid-to-high 2% growth.
7.2% = (123 ‘good’ indicators ÷ 215 total indicators) - 50%