⬆️ GDP nowcast: Q1, 2025: +2.3%
Basically holding trend-growth, but there are flashing red warning signs everywhere 🚨
The last GDP nowcast published on Jan 21st predicted +2.2% growth for Q4 2024, and the actual numbers came in at +2.3% growth, so I’ll call that a win! This quarter’s nowcast has been a little harder to gauge. There are definitely flashing red lights across the economy, but, based on available data, the nowcast thinks growth will be about equal to last quarter. Today’s job growth numbers were solid, but indicators like average hours worked and continued unemployment claims are showing weakness. Of the 132 data-points collected so far this quarter, 78 have been “good” for a net positive score of +10%. The GDP nowcasting model is now showing +2.3% growth for Q1.
The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index tumbled in the last couple months and is now looking very weak. This is in addition to skyrocketing policy uncertainty.
How are other nowcasts/forecasts looking for Q1, 2025? Note there’s a pretty big spread across these forecasts — typically they are all more closely aligned.
New York Fed Staff Nowcast: +2.9%
Atlanta Fed GDP Now: -2.4% 🚨🚨🚨
Good Judgement Forecast: between +1.0% and +2.0%
Bank of America & Goldman Sachs (via Calculated Risk): +2.3% & +1.4%