⬆️ GDP Nowcast: Q1, 2025: +1.5%
Growth is very likely slowing...
I’m trying not to spam the same topic too often, but economic conditions are changing rapidly. The market clearly thinks there is trouble brewing in the economy, and other semi-subjective measures like economic policy uncertainty keep increasing. However, some indicators like industrial production showed strength lately. Of the 158 data-points collected so far this quarter, 90 have been “good” for a net positive score of +6%. The GDP nowcasting model is now showing just +1.5% growth for Q1.
How are other nowcasts/forecasts looking for Q1, 2025? There’s still a pretty big spread across these forecasts — typically they are all more closely aligned.
New York Fed Staff Nowcast: ↑+2.7%
Atlanta Fed GDP Now: ↓-1.8% 🚨
Good Judgement Forecast: from ↑+1.0% to ↑+2.0%
Bank of America & Goldman Sachs (via Calculated Risk): ↑+1.9% & ↑+1.3%
Daniel Bachman’s The Nowcast Substack: ↓-5.4% 🚨🚨🚨