⬆️ GDP nowcast: Q1, 2024: +2.7%
Looks like growth is really picking up! Q1 GDP growth started off weak but has accelerated to +2.7%.
The first look at Q1 GDP will be released Thursday. Despite weak markets (lately), overall economic data has been improving throughout the quarter. Of the 287 data points collected this quarter, 172 were moving the right direction (net of +57 good indicators or +9.9% net “good”).
High 2% growth would be really impressive right now, given that interest rates are still so high (and rising). How are other nowcasts tracking?
New York Fed Staff Nowcast for Q1, 2024: +2.2%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q1, 2024: +2.9%
Calculated Risk also notes that GDP estimates are “movin’ on up”: Goldman Sachs is forecasting +3.1% and Bank of America is at +2.1%.
One thing that’s been encouraging is that my model is more consistently in the range of all other nowcasts/forecasts.