GDP nowcast (postmortem)
GDP +3.3% -- way better than expected; Q1, 2024 GDP Nowcast: +2.6%
Great news for the U.S. economy: GDP grew at +3.3% in the 4th quarter. This beat expectations by a lot — my “4Lights Nowcast” prediction was for +2.2%. While that’s a pretty big error, I feel ok about it because the other nowcasts I follow were equally bad:
It’s also worth noting that the Congressional Budget Office’s December projection was for a terrible +0.8% growth in the 4th quarter — I’m not sure what data they saw that led to such a terrible growth estimate. There is always the possibility of downward revisions (i.e. the initial GDP estimate is +3.3% and the final estimate released in a few weeks is for +3.0%).
Regardless of nowcast accuracy, it finally does feel like consumer sentiment is catching up with big-picture economic numbers (which have been very good!). The so-called “vibecession” might be over.
Q1, 2024 GDP Nowcast: +2.6%
There isn’t a ton of economic data so far in Q1, but what we do have is pretty positive. Net indicators are more positive than negative, but the nowcast will evolve a lot in the coming weeks.
This is lower than the Atlanta Fed nowcast and the New York Fed nowcast at +3.0% and +2.8%, respectively.