Forecast Friday 📈 (sort of)
Median 15 day forecast: SP500 ▲+1.3% | BTC ▲+6.9% | 10Yr Treasury Yld ▼-1.4% | VIX Volatility ▼-12.9% (as of 1/17/24)
Well, “forecast Friday” is getting a little derailed by increasing delays in GOOGLEFINANCE data. Nevertheless:
Some notes on this week’s Matched Correlation Market Model:
The S&P500 hit an all-time-high after going through a couple of choppy weeks. Economic data is still largely positive, although December’s inflation numbers were higher than expected. The model is fairly confident that there is more room to grow.
Bitcoin is definitely stumbling after an incredible +83% gain in the last 12-months. The model is not confident about BTC, however. It is not finding historical periods that resemble the last 25 days of trading (hence the “poor” robustness score). Basic technical analysis says it’s time to sell, though.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield is expected to drop, according to the model, and it is fairly confident of this. The Fed is being very cautious as to not overhype the market and start feeding back into inflation, so they are tempering expectations as much as possible. However, the market still seems to expect rate cuts (which would be great for homebuyers and capital intensive businesses).
The VIX Volatility Index is giving weak signal, but the model is expecting a drop. (Actually, that drop has already started since the data in the model is only through the 17th. The VIX already dropped by -6% since the 17th.) A falling VIX is a good sign for stocks.
Note: This is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be personal financial advice; be cautious — there is always risk involved with financial decisions!