Forecast Friday 📈 + new feature(s)!
15 day forecast: SP500 â–²+0.8% | BTC â–²+1.8% | 10Yr Treasury Yld â–¼-0.4% | VIX Volatility â–²+9.4% | Gold â–¼-0.3% (as of 3/14/24)
A new forecast is ready, and it includes gold prices! Also, someone reached out and asked if this model could be applied to individual stocks, and sure — why not? To that end, feel free to fill out this form if there are some stocks, ETFs, or funds you are interested in. I recommend keeping requests to larger, domestic companies with longer trading histories.
Now, on to markets:
Some notes on this week’s Matched Correlation Market Model:
The S&P500 has had some weakness this week, but has been strong since the last time I published the model. The model, at that time, was fairly confident the SP would keep running higher, and it has. The last couple of inflation measures have come in hotter than expected, which threw some water on the rate-cutting expectations. It also appears that economic data is weakening, in general. The New York Fed nowcast for GDP growth has deteriorated from +3.3% to +1.7% in the last month, which is a bummer.
Bitcoin is doing its thing again… 🚀🚀🚀 The model has low confidence in the direction, but it did predict a +3% run last time, and here we are at +32% (!!!). Incredible run…
The 10-Year Treasury Yield model now has very high confidence that yields will drop (high ▃▅▆▉ robustness score), although not by much. Interest rates are probably contributing to low consumer confidence, and homebuyers need lower rates. 30-year mortgages are still hovering in the high 6% range.
The VIX Volatility Index is still giving a poor signal, but the model is expecting a big increase (yikes).
Gold 🪙 is the newest addition to the model, and the data I’m using has some good correlation matches to today’s environment. The traditional narrative has been that gold is good during war and inflation. Well, we got war on February 22nd, 20221 and inflation has been uncomfortably high since spring of 2021, yet gold did almost nothing throughout those events. Maybe gold is finally catching up to the broader geopolitical and economic landscape?
Note: This is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be personal financial advice; be cautious — there is always risk involved with financial decisions!
Slava Ukraini