Forecast Friday 📈
Median 15 day forecast: SP500 ▲+0.6% | BTC ▼-0.3% | 10Yr Treasury Yld ▲+2.0% | VIX Volatility ▲+1.5%
Some notes on this week’s Matched Correlation Market Model:
The S&P500 has gone on an incredible run, and Fed watchers are starting to get excited about rate cuts. That said, I do think the market is due for some consolidation (i.e. selling) over the next few weeks — even if it continues to run more in the short term. Other momentum style indicators look to be on the verge of “rolling over”.
Bitcoin has also had a nice run, but the model is not finding a lot of good historical periods of correlation, so it doesn’t have a strong opinion either way.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield is expected to tick back up, according to the model. This short-term increase is contrary to the longer-term outlooks which are generally predicting decreasing interest rates beginning this quarter.
The VIX Volatility Index is giving the strongest signals within the model. The index itself keeps reaching new lows while getting interrupted with brief periods of extreme volatility (like on October 7th). Will the end of the ceasefire bring on new volatility? Possibly. Remember, when the VIX increases, we should expect a lot of volatility in other markets.
Note: This is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be personal financial advice; be cautious — there is always risk involved with financial decisions!