Forecast Friday 📈
15 day forecast: SP500 â–²+0.6% | BTC â–¼-0.6% | 10Yr Treasury Yld â–¼-3.2% | VIX Volatility â–¼-2.6% | Gold â–²+0.4% (as of 6/20/24)
Been a while since I ran the market forecast model, but here it is!
Some notes:
The S&P500 resumed its strong uptrend after a pretty bad May, and the model has pretty high confidence the ▲ trend will continue . Good inflation data earlier this week is certainly bullish — those Fed rate cut won't happen until we sustain 0.0% CPI for a few months.
Bitcoin is having a rough time: 🔻-8.3% in the last month. The model expects further losses, but it doesn't have much confidence either way.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield model now expects that yields will fall but has very low confidence. This probably reflects some expectations of softening inflation and lower rates. The 30 year mortgage
is back below 7%, good news!The VIX Volatility Index is likely to decrease, according to the model (low confidence). Some stability in the world — including potential peace plans in the Middle East— should reduce volatility.
Gold 🪙 is in for some additional gains, according to the model, and it's pretty confident. Costco (one of my favorite stocks) is still selling out of its gold bars.
Note: This is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be personal financial advice; be cautious — there is always risk involved with financial decisions!